House prices in the UK have risen for the sixth successive month, driven partly by buyers rushing to complete deals before stamp duty rates rise from April.
According to new figures from Nationwide, average property values edged up 0.4% in February, reaching £270,493—just shy of the record highs seen before the turmoil triggered by Liz Truss’s mini-budget.
In total, house prices are 3.9% higher than a year ago, a further sign of continued resilience despite a patchy economic backdrop and the rise in mortgage rates over the past 18 months. Experts suggest the bigger-than-expected increase may reflect a burst of activity from purchasers hoping to avoid potentially higher tax costs this spring.
“Some of the bigger-than-expected rise in Nationwide house prices in February may reflect an increase in housing activity being brought forward ahead of stamp duty becoming more onerous on April 1,” Ashley Webb, UK economist at Capital Economics, said. Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, echoed that sentiment, anticipating “a jump in transactions in March and a corresponding weakness in the following months,” consistent with patterns after previous tax changes.
Meanwhile, improving wage growth and falling mortgage rates have made homebuying more feasible than during the pandemic’s peak, when affordability ratios soared to nearly seven times average salaries. Nationwide estimates that a typical home now costs around 5.9 times the average UK wage, still considerably higher than the long-term average of about 4.5.
Property analysts expect the market to cool once the new stamp duty thresholds come into force. Nevertheless, the foundations of strong employment, rising wages, and a continued appetite for larger living spaces point to a housing sector that appears surprisingly robust in the face of multiple economic headwinds.
