A slump in capital gains tax (CGT) revenue and signs of a wealth exodus from the UK are prompting calls for a rethink on how to attract affluent overseas investors — including the potential reintroduction of a ‘UK investor visa’.
New figures show CGT revenue fell from £14.5 billion to £13 billion in the year to March 2025, a drop that Knight Frank’s head of research, Tom Bill, attributes in part to the government’s decision to scrap the non-dom tax regime.
“The move to end the non-dom tax regime could reduce the number of wealthy non-doms in the UK and hence reduce future CGT receipts,” said Robert Salter, director at tax advisory firm Blick Rothenberg.
With the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) warning that the government’s £9.9 billion of fiscal headroom is “a very small margin,” concerns are mounting over how the Treasury might respond in the autumn Budget — and what new measures could be used to entice global wealth back to the UK.
According to Bill, the idea of a new investor visa — similar in concept to the US’s proposed “gold card” visa, which would require a $5 million investment — is already being quietly floated.
“As the financial pressure intensifies on the government… could it introduce a new measure with a politically-palatable name like a ‘UK investor visa’?” Bill asked, noting that a tiered tax regime is also being proposed by groups such as Foreign Investors for Britain (FIFB).
One version would see foreign investors pay a fixed annual fee, such as £2 million, based on their wealth level, in exchange for access and favourable tax treatment — a concept that some argue could offset the damage from the non-dom overhaul without the political toxicity of a blanket wealth tax.
While the term “Wexit” — a supposed exodus of wealth from the UK — has gained traction in some quarters, Bill cautions against overstatement. However, he concedes that the prime central London (PCL) property market is feeling the impact of investor uncertainty.
Prices in PCL fell 1.6% in the year to April, and are down 3% since the start of the pandemic, in contrast to 8% growth in prime outer London (POL) over the same period. This divergence reflects a combination of political headwinds, post-Covid buyer preferences, and foreign investor hesitancy.
Yet for opportunistic overseas buyers, falling PCL prices could look like a buying opportunity — particularly if visa or tax incentives reappear.
The UK scrapped its Tier 1 investor visa in 2022 over concerns about illicit finance, but many international peers still operate similar programmes. Some, like Portugal and Ireland, have recently wound them down, while others — including the US, Canada, and Australia — are tweaking schemes to balance economic gain with political optics.
The question now facing the UK government is whether, in a post-non-dom environment, it can afford not to introduce a replacement strategy.
“Any form of wealth tax in the autumn Budget would be a tougher sell against the backdrop of falling tax revenues,” Bill said. “But uncertainty has already cooled demand in key segments of the property market.”
With CGT receipts slipping, high-net-worth individuals drifting away, and prime London real estate under pressure, a carefully designed UK investor visa could prove a politically viable and economically beneficial solution — if the Treasury chooses to act.
