A year after Labour’s landslide general election victory, industry experts have cast serious doubt over one of its core manifesto pledges – to build 1.5 million new homes by 2029 – calling it “political fantasy” and warning the government is already years behind target.
Data released last month by Homes England shows just 38,308 homes were started and 36,872 completed in the 12 months to the end of March 2025.
New analysis by West One Loans this week suggests Labour is on course to miss its target by at least eight years unless housebuilding rates quadruple. The government would need to deliver 370,000 homes annually to hit its 2029 goal – yet last year’s figures fell more than 300,000 short.
Pete Mugleston, Managing Director at onlinemortgageadvisor.co.uk, said Labour’s ambitions were over-inflated from the start: “They were elected on the back of this bold promise, but unless they pull a rabbit out of a hat, they’re going to struggle. The country desperately needs new homes to meet demand. I wouldn’t bet my house on them hitting it.”
Rob Peters, Principal at Simple Fast Mortgage, warned the problem is worse than official projections show: “At the current build rate, they’ll miss their target by nearly a decade, and that’s before you factor in planning delays, material shortages, and rising costs.”
Several contributors argued that the promise has already joined the likes of HS2’s northern leg in “the graveyard of political fantasy”.
Harry Goodliffe of HTG Mortgages said: “A year on and they’re way off track. If Labour wants to deliver, they need to cut through the red tape, boost skills, offer incentives – and stop just talking a big game.”
Michelle Lawson, Director at Lawson Financial, added: “They overpromise and underdeliver. Politicians lose trust because they continue to set targets they have no hope of hitting.”
Kundan Bhaduri, Entrepreneur at The Kushman Group, pulled no punches: “In reality, we barely managed 36,000 homes last year. The planning system is a bottleneck, the workforce is shrinking, and developers are being stifled by bureaucracy. If Labour genuinely intends to fix the housing crisis, they need to do more than quote numbers from a podium.”
The construction sector is also facing acute skills shortages. According to the latest City & Guilds report, the industry needs to recruit more than 239,000 workers by 2029 to meet projected demand.
Tony Redondo of Cosmos Currency Exchange added that rising costs, wage pressures, and delays to planning reform are undermining delivery. “Intentions are there, but this year’s planning approvals are at a 2006 low, and the industry remains sceptical.”
Rob Mansfield, Independent Financial Advisor at Rootes Wealth Management, summarised the dilemma: “If it were easy, previous governments would have done it. The challenges are structural – planning, workforce, and materials. It’s a tall order for Labour to succeed, but we must hope they do.”
With just four years left to deliver on their flagship housing promise, experts agree: unless the government accelerates planning reform, slashes red tape and addresses workforce shortages, the homes target may never leave the drawing board.
