The global super-prime property market posted a notable downturn in the third quarter of 2024, with London standing out as a rare bright spot.
According to Knight Frank’s latest report on sales above the US$10m threshold, 406 luxury homes changed hands across 12 major cities – down from 496 in the previous quarter and 464 a year earlier.
While cities such as New York, Miami and Dubai recorded declining transaction numbers, London saw super-prime sales inch up from 47 to 51 between Q2 and Q3 – the first increase since the third quarter of 2023. Driving that uptick were buyers eager to complete deals before new fiscal measures from Labour’s government come into force.
Nevertheless, the capital’s super-prime market remains well below its post-pandemic peak. Between 2021 and 2023, London averaged around US$1.5 billion in quarterly sales; no quarter in 2024 has yet surpassed the US$1 billion mark.
Luxury sales in American cities took a hit, shaped largely by the looming US election cycle and its attendant political uncertainty. None of the five US cities included in Knight Frank’s analysis showed quarter-on-quarter gains:
• Palm Beach recorded its weakest quarter since 2022.
• Miami suffered a steep 60% year-on-year fall in Q3, above normal seasonal fluctuations.
• Los Angeles and New York City each posted mild annual rises but dipped compared to Q2 2024.
Dubai, a star performer since 2021, is also showing signs of cooling. The city notched 83 luxury sales in Q3, nearly 40% lower year on year. Even so, figures remain well above pre-pandemic norms: over the 12 months to September, high-end property transactions have tripled compared to 2021 and doubled compared to 2022, signalling a more measured market environment.
Looking ahead
Knight Frank expects global super-prime performance to hinge on evolving macroeconomic and political factors. With the US election cycle nearing its conclusion, stability could return to American luxury markets. In London, the recent upturn suggests a surge of early buyers locking in purchases ahead of proposed tax changes, underscoring the capital’s enduring appeal despite broader global slowdowns.
